April 21, 2017

The Week in Earnings | Apr. 21, 2017

by David Aurelio

The Manhattan skyline is seen behind weeds and flowers on Roosevelt Island in New York June 4, 2013. World Environment Day is celebrated annually on June 5 to raise global awareness about environmental issues and stimulate political action, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. REUTERS/Zoran Milich (UNITED STATES – Tags: ENVIRONMENT CITYSCAPE TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY) – RTX10BPN

Last Update: Apr. 21, 2017

Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • First quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.2% from Q1 2016. Excluding the Energy sector, the earnings growth estimate increases to 7.5%
  • Of the 95 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q1 2017, 75.8% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This is above the long-term average of 64% and above the average over the past four quarters of 71%.
  • 62.1% of companies have reported Q1 2017 revenue above analyst expectations. This is above the long-term average of 59% and above the average over the past four quarters of 53%.
  • For Q1 2017, there have been 83 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 33 positive EPS preannouncements. By dividing 83 by 33, one arrives at an N/P ratio of 2.5 for the S&P 500 Index.
  • The forward four-quarter (2Q17 – 1Q18) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.4.
  • During the week of April 24, 194 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings

For more details on what to expect this earnings season checkout Earnings Roundup: Will 17Q1 be the S&P 500’s Best Qtr. in Over 5 Years?

StarMine Earnings Surprise Forecast Q1 2017

Looking forward to anticipated Q1 performance, we use StarMine’s SmartEstimate® to determine which companies in the S&P 500 are better poised to beat earnings estimates. The SmartEstimate® is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (IBES Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.

Over the next two weeks, 325 S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings. Of these companies, a positive surprise is expected from 19 companies. On the flip side, a negative surprise is expected from 42 S&P 500 companies.

To download the full This Week in Earnings report click here.

Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

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