July 17, 2018

StarMine Models Pick North American Companies for 18Q2 Earnings Misses

by Tajinder Dhillon.

The StarMine team has selected five North American companies, using Thomson Reuters’ Eikon Screener, that we expect to miss 18Q2 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data.

Our North American selections for 2018 Q1 negative Predicted Surprises were 100% accurate, which can be seen here. Historically (since 2011 Q4), our negative Predicted Surprise picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 65.0%, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements.

Our North American picks for negative Predicted Surprises in 2018 Q2 are — Mattel Inc (MAT.OQ), Ormat Technologies Inc (ORA.N), Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (DO.N), Teradyne Inc (TER.N), and Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT.OQ).

SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate the occurrence of earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates® are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

Negative surprise predictions

Mattel Inc (MAT.OQ)


Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters StarMine

 

Ormat Technologies Inc (ORA.N) 


Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters StarMine

 

Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (DO.N)


Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters StarMine

 

Teradyne Inc (TER.N)


Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters StarMine

 

Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT.OQ)


Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters StarMine

 

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