April 18, 2018

StarMine Models Pick North American Companies for 18Q1 Earnings Misses

by David Aurelio

The StarMine team has selected five North American companies, using Thomson Reuters’ Eikon Screener, that we expect to miss 18Q1 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data.

Our North American selections for 2017 Q4 negative Predicted Surprises were 80% accurate, which can be seen here. Historically (since 2011 Q4), our negative Predicted Surprise picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 65.0%, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements.

Our North American picks for negative Predicted Surprises in 2018 Q1 are — Beigene Ltd (BGNE.O), TiVo Corp (TIVO.O), Buckeye Partners LP (BPL.N), Green Plains Inc (GPRE.O), and Mattel Inc (MAT.O).

SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate the occurrence of earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates® are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

Negative surprise predictions

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