by David Aurelio.
The StarMine team has selected five North American companies, using Thomson Reuters’ Eikon Screener, that we expect to miss 18Q1 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data.
Our North American selections for 2017 Q4 negative Predicted Surprises were 80% accurate, which can be seen here. Historically (since 2011 Q4), our negative Predicted Surprise picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 65.0%, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements.
Our North American picks for negative Predicted Surprises in 2018 Q1 are — Beigene Ltd (BGNE.O), TiVo Corp (TIVO.O), Buckeye Partners LP (BPL.N), Green Plains Inc (GPRE.O), and Mattel Inc (MAT.O).
SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate the occurrence of earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates® are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.
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