February 1, 2018

StarMine Models European Companies for FY 2017 Earnings Misses

by Tajinder Dhillon

The StarMine team has selected five European companies, using the Eikon Screener, that we expect to miss earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data.

Our European selections for FY2016 were 90% correct, which can be seen here. Historically, our picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 75% accurate, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements.

Our European picks for negative Predicted Surprises in FY2017 are —Caverion Oyj (CAV1V.HE), Polymetal International PLC (POLYP.L), Electricite de France SA (EDF.PA), Teleperformance SE (ROCH.PA), and Veidekke ASA (VEI.OL).

SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate the occurrence of earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates® are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

Negative Surprise Predictions

Caverion Oyj (CAV1V.HE)

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Polymetal International PLC (POLYP.L) 

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Electricite de France SA (EDF.PA) 

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Teleperformance SE (ROCH.PA) 

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Veidekke ASA (VEI.OL)

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Screen for Predicted Surprise

Learn how to screen for Predicted Surprise candidates using the Screener app within Thomson Reuters Eikon and how to follow the latest earnings information with Thomson Reuters’ new live Earnings Season (EARN) app within Eikon.

We will also show how Thomson Reuters Eikon can help you:

  • Anticipate other companies that might beat or miss the consensus forecast, helping you time entry and exit points
  • Identify which analysts have a superior track record of accurately forecasting earnings – those you should be paying the most attention to
  • Gain a deeper insight into future company financial performance for new idea generation
  • More easily track the Earnings Season as it unfolds

Thomson Reuters Eikon is a complete solution for research and analytics. It places the most comprehensive market information, news, analytics and trading tools available into a desktop as simple to use as the Internet. Thomson Reuters Eikon clients can run fundamental and technical screens against a global dataset representing more than 100 countries and over 200,000 securities.

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