November 16, 2017

Q3 2017 U.S. Retail and Restaurant Earnings Dashboard

by Jharonne Martis

3Q 2017 Thomson Reuters Retail and Restaurant Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 6.7% from Q3 2016.
  • 76% of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported 3Q 2017 EPS.
  • Of the 166 companies in the Retail/Restaurant Index that have reported earnings to date for Q3 2017, 62% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 14% matched, while 24% reported revenue below analyst expectations.
  • The Q3 2017 blended revenue growth estimate is 6.1%.
  • 62% have reported revenue above analyst expectations, 1% matched, and 38% reported revenue below analyst expectations.
  • For Q4 2017, there have been 31 negative EPS preannouncements issued compared to 6 positive EPS preannouncements.

Retailers this week: November 13 – 17

Walmart and Home Depot’s Q3 sales received a boost from hurricanes, while others were hurt. One of the biggest surprises came from Walmart, which reported thirteen quarters of positive SSS. The retailer raised guidance, and is upbeat going into the holiday season. Accordingly, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are bullish and expect positive earnings and revenue growth over the next three quarters.

Exhibit 1: Retailers reporting Same Store Sales and Earnings – Nov 13 -17

Holiday Q4 2017 Earnings and Revenue Guidance

Retailers are already warning us not to expect much in the next reporting cycle. We continue to receive more negative guidance.  For Q4 2017, there have been 31 negative EPS preannouncements issued compared to only 6 positive EPS pre-announcements. The bulk of the negative guidance (26%) comes from the apparel sector.

Exhibit 2: Holiday Guidance – Q4 2017 vs. Q3 2017

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates

SAME STORE SALES:

Of the 37 retailers that have reported 3Q Same Store Sales, 49% exceeded estimates, while 51% missed.

Exhibit 3: Retail Same Store Sales Scorecard

 

RESTAURANT SAME STORE SALES:

Of the 35 restaurants that have reported 3Q Same Store Sales, 51% exceeded estimates, while 49% missed.

Exhibit 4: Restaurant Same Store Sales Scorecard

 

Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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