The Financial & Risk business of Thomson Reuters is now Refinitiv

All names and marks owned by Thomson Reuters, including "Thomson", "Reuters" and the Kinesis logo are used under license from Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies.

November 21, 2017

Chart of the Week: Fathom’s UK ESI Remains More Bullish than the Official Data

by Fathom Consulting.

by Fathom Consulting.

The Fathom UK Economic Sentiment Indicator (UK ESI), which distils information from numerous consumer and business surveys, nudged up to 0.6% in October. That improvement was driven by just over half of the surveys included within our ESI, although those more confident in October than in September tended to be business-survey respondents, as opposed to consumers.

Refresh the chart in your browser Edit chart in Datastream

Want more charts and analysis? Access a pre-built library of charts built by Fathom Consulting via Datastream Chartbook in Thomson Reuters Eikon.

As the chart above highlights, for much of the year there has been a marked deviation between survey-based measures of economic activity (as captured by our ESI) and official data, particularly in the manufacturing and construction sectors. With that deviation in mind, and with consumers still under assault from falling real wages, October’s ESI reading does little to dissuade us that the UK remains vulnerable to a consumer-led downturn. As our clients are aware, contrary to other consultancies, we do not believe that investment- or export-orientated growth will save the day.


Thomson Reuters Datastream

Financial time series database which allows you to identify and examine trends, generate and test ideas and develop view points on the market.

Thomson Reuters offers the world’s most comprehensive historical database for numerical macroeconomic and cross-asset financial data which started in the 1950s and has grown into an indispensable resource for financial professionals. Find out more.

Get In Touch