The StarMine team has selected five U.S. companies, using the Eikon Screener, that we expect to beat earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data.
Our North American selections for 2016 Q4 were 80% correct, which can be seen here. Historically, our picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 75%, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements.
SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate the occurrence of earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates® are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.
Construction supplier Owens Corning is expected to benefit from strength in its roofing segment, which represents roughly 39% of 2016 revenue. Owens has a 17Q1 EPS Predicted Surprise of 8.4% based on a SmartEstimate® of $0.65 per share compared to the mean estimate of $0.60 per share. Additionally, there are two Bold Estimates for Owens of $0.90 and $0.82 per share. A Bold Estimate represents an estimate by an analyst rated 5-stars (the highest possible rating) by StarMine for past accuracy.
Analysts are making upward to revisions to 17Q1 EPS estimates for Regal Entertainment due box office sales and improved margins. Regal has an EPS SmartEstimate® of $0.34 per share compared to the mean estimate of $0.30 per share. This translates to a Predicted Surprise of 11.1%, which means that Regal is expected to beat the. Additionally, there is a Bold Estimates for Regal of $0.37 per share.
Analyst sentiment for dry bulk carrier Scorpio Bulkers is improving due to better expectations for fleet rate averages. Scorpio has an EPS Predicted Surprise of 12.2% for 17Q1, which is based on a SmartEstimate® for a loss of $0.21 per share compared to the mean estimate for a loss of $0.24 per share. As a result, Scorpio is expected to report 17Q1 EPS above the consensus on May 1, 2017.
Alternative investment manager Apollo Global is expected to beat the 17Q1 EPS consensus due to investment performance and increased management fees. This combination contributes to an EPS SmartEstimate® of $0.66 per share and a mean estimate of $0.63 per share for a Predicted Surprise of 3.8%.
NVIDIA is known for their graphics processing units (GPU’s), which represented 84% of fiscal year 2017 revenue. However, their Tegra Processor unit may be the push that puts them above 17Q1 consensus estimates thanks to its presence in Nintendo Co., Ltd.’s (7974.T) Switch. NVIDIA has a 17Q1 EPS Predicted Surprise of 2.0% based on a SmartEstimate® of $0.68 per share compared to the mean estimate of $0.67 per share. Additionally, there is a Bold Estimates for NVIDIA of $0.82 per share.
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