January 18, 2017

StarMine Models Pick North American Companies for 16Q4 Earnings Misses

by David Aurelio

The StarMine team has selected five North American companies, using the Eikon Screener, that we expect to miss earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data.

Our North American selections for 2016 Q3 were 90% correct, which can be seen here. Historically, our picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 75% accurate, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements.

Our North American picks for negative Predicted Surprises in 2016 Q4 are — Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI.O), Costamare Inc. (CMRE.N), Phillips 66 (PSX.N), Santander Consumer USA Holding Inc. (SC.N), and Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN.O).

SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate the occurrence of earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates® are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

Negative surprise predictions

Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI.O)

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Costamare Inc. (CMRE.N)

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Phillips 66 (PSX.N)

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Santander Consumer USA Holding Inc. (SC.N)

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN.O)

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Screen for Predicted Surprise

Learn how to screen for Predicted Surprise candidates using the Screener app within Thomson Reuters Eikon and how to follow the latest earnings information with Thomson Reuters’ new live Earnings Season (EARN) app within Eikon by checking out the slides from the Jan. 18th live webcast, “Q4 Earnings Surprise Forecast: Which Companies may Beat or Miss?”

We will also show how Thomson Reuters Eikon can help you:

  • Anticipate other companies that might beat or miss the consensus forecast, helping you time entry and exit points
  • Identify which analysts have a superior track record of accurately forecasting earnings – those you should be paying the most attention to
  • Gain a deeper insight into future company financial performance for new idea generation
  • More easily track the Earnings Season as it unfolds

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Which 5 North American companies does our StarMine team predict will beat earnings expectations? Find out here.

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