January 31, 2017

StarMine Models European Companies for FY2016 Earnings Misses

by Tim Gaumer

The StarMine team has selected five European companies, using the Eikon Screener, that we expect to miss earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data.

Our European selections for FY2015 were 70% correct, which can be seen here. Historically, our picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 75% accurate, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements.

Our European picks for negative Predicted Surprises in FY2016 are — EDP Renovaveis SA (EDPR.LS), Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA (NWC.OL), Vidrala SA (VID.MC), Panalpina Welttransport Holding AG (PWTN.S), and Eurocash SA (EUR.WA).

SmartEstimates® aim to provide earnings forecasts that are more accurate than I/B/E/S Consensus Estimates, by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of top-rated analysts. When SmartEstimates® diverge significantly from Consensus, you can anticipate the occurrence of earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates® are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

Negative Surprise Predictions

EDP Renovaveis SA (EDPR.LS)

NEG_01

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA (NWC.OL)

 

NEG_02

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Vidrala SA (VID.MC)

 

NEG_03

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Panalpina Welttransport Holding AG (PWTN.S)

 

NEG_04

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Eurocash SA (EUR.WA)

 

NEG_05

Sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

Screen for Predicted Surprise

Learn how to screen for Predicted Surprise candidates using the Screener app within Thomson Reuters Eikon and how to follow the latest earnings information with Thomson Reuters’ new live Earnings Season (EARN) app within Eikon by checking out the slides from the Jan. 31, 2017 live webcast, “2016 Earnings Surprise Forecast: Which European Companies May Beat or Miss?”

We will also show how Thomson Reuters Eikon can help you:

  • Anticipate other companies that might beat or miss the consensus forecast, helping you time entry and exit points
  • Identify which analysts have a superior track record of accurately forecasting earnings – those you should be paying the most attention to
  • Gain a deeper insight into future company financial performance for new idea generation
  • More easily track the Earnings Season as it unfolds

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Which 5 European companies does our StarMine team predict will beat earnings expectations? Find out here.

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